Maravedis Cloud4G –Lead Wireless Broadband to the Personal Cloud
Clearwire is Thrust into Play … its worth more, but will anyone join the bidding?
Recent institutional investors and financial analysts have assessed Clearwire’s spectrum to be valued at between $0.25 and $0.35 USD per MHz.POP which places the value of the shares, minus the debt at about $7. This value for the spectrum look reasonable considering that it is lower than the average estimate of over four years ago when Clearwire first went public. Demand for broadband acces has grown strongly since. And despite more spectrum coming into the market, the market has proven to be ready to make use of well deployed and marketed network access that provides higher capacities The next competitive stage will encroach increasingly into fixed-nomadic as well as mobile broadband as the ability to satisfy the several gigabit per month usage per household needed to support video and download services will come closer to wired services. That opens up the opportunity for the long talked about ‘tripple play’ to become a more potent market factor. The potency of the single-network to deliver much of the broadband everywhere experience catapults off the fact that it is no longer just one network that will deliver the experience. Instead, the industry is rapidly shifing towards the SDWN, multiple carrier smart network that includes the common offloads of WiFi, DSL and cable access as supplements. That will soon create an environment in which Clearwire’s LTE network can fit into the tiered network model as the higher capacity metro-zone and supplement for the ‘middle mile’ network.
Source Maravedis.com 2008
Its worthwhile to now and again look back at prior forecasts to see how good our analysis proved to be and where changes occurred that shed insight into emerging trends.
In early 2009 Verizon had begun an aggressive program of LTE network and device development and deployments. Clearwire had presented a modest threat as the WiMAX upstart with an earlier lead into the new generation OFDM wireless technologies with the mobile handset muscle of Sprint to aide them. The combined Sprint-Clearwire alliance made strong overtures for upstaging the wireless leaders into the next era of higher bandwidth networks, an era that the two hoped would demand wider bands of spectrum the new network using the 2.6GHz extension band spectrum could deliver.
What is known is that talks are taking place between Sprint and Softbank regarding an acquisition or investment deal. Since these companies are never likely to discuss the details of talks and how that would impact such things as network deployments, infusion of capital, etc., that leaves it up to analysts to make guesses based on the strengths and weaknesses of the parties and how they would seek to turn their mutual investments to greater benefit.
The first thing Softbank can bring to the table is capital access… a deal would assure greater baking for network expansion. This has some negative consequences that sometimes have been taken out of context in regards to impact on Clearwire: SB can help Sprint in leveraging the narrow bands of spectrum they have available by more aggressive use of small cells fashioned as part of their ‘Network Vision’ HetNet approach to deployments. The added capital flexibility would make it more likely S would get the AWS-1 spectrum to compliment the Nextel AWS to forge 10X10 FDD bands. Check that off as 95% likely if the deal goes through.. 85% without it anyway. The FCC will most likely approve the arrangement despite protest from DISH.